Friday, January 2, 2009

Pri Market Commentary ...

Today, we expect the market to open on a cautious note after Thursday's sudden spurt. Markets in Hong Kong, Singapore and Seoul are up 1-2% , but they were shut yesterday. Several global markets will continue to observe an extended New Year holiday though the US will resume trading today. The key indices may turn sideways after what looks like a flat opening. Though the undertone has improved of late, the market lacks vigour and strength to rise too far from here. The upside appears capped as selling may kick in at higher levels. A rangebound pattern is what looks to be the best bet.

One should be extremely careful while buying scrips with questionable background. In any case, there are enough doubts whether the recent spurt in the market can sustain given the uncertain environment and lack of strong FII inflows.

Continuous fall in inflation may bring some cheer, as it heightens expectations of rate cuts. But one cannot overlook other weak data points like the BoP slipping into a deficit and exports falling for a second month. Auto sales remained sluggish in December. Reports say the Government may announce its second stimulus package on Saturday. There is no official confirmation of the same. The RBI may also join the pump-priming effort, but by how much is the moot point. Even if the anticipated events do materialise, they may provide only a temporary fillip. Anxiety over corporate earnings may takeover after a brief rally.


Most global markets were shut for New Year on Thursday.


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