Pri Market Commentary ...

Today, we see the key indices opening in the red again, though not by much. Things could improve during the week after last week's 7% drop. Asian markets are mostly down this morning, led by South Korea's Kospi. Crude oil is up over 4% at around $39 per barrel. US stocks closed marginally higher on Friday while European markets were shut for Christmas holidays.Misfortune seems to have dominated most events, places and persons this year.


Just three days to go before the curtains come down on what has been a disastrous year for world markets. The Indian market is down over 50%, that too after hitting all-time highs in early January (a year best forgotten for bulls). We will of course not go into the details of what exactly went wrong this year, as it is already well articulated by now.

We expect the market to be lackluster and sideways. Investors are likely to remain on the sidelines for the next few days given that companies will soon start announcing quarterly results. Some news is also awaited on the next round of fiscal stimulus and the anticipated rate cuts by the RBI. The central bank is scheduled to undertake a quarterly review of its annual policy at the end of the month. Softening of Indo-Pak tension is seen as a positive. On the whole, earnings will be a key focus area. More than 20% drop in advance tax numbers for the October-December quarter spooked the sentiment on Friday.

One only hopes that the bulls will be much better off in 2009 than the year that is just set to pass us by. Some recovery is expected in the second half in terms of improvement in micro as well as macro economic fundamentals. Corporate earnings over the next few quarters will hinge on how fast the economic scenario changes (for the better that is). Right now all is in the realm of speculation. Lots of uncertainties still loom large over the world markets. However, a lot of bad news is already built into the stock prices and investors are just looking for light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully it won't be that of a speeding train (read more bad news).