Friday, February 19, 2010
सेन्सेक्स (16191.63) -136.21 अंक गिरकर, नीफ़्टी (4844.90) -42.85 अंक गिरकर, बंद..
Delivery Call ..
Buy on dips :Videocon Inds at 220-240 hold for Target Rs255: The stock continues to be in an uptrend after breaking out a downward-sloping trend line since January 2010. The momentum indicator RSI is exhibiting positive movement suggesting further upside in the near term. We believe a move past Rs244 will see the stock testing January 2010 peak. Keeping in mind the above mentioned technical parameters, we recommend traders to buy the stock in the range of Rs220-240 with SL of Rs217 for target of Rs255 and Rs260 plus in coming days.
Strategy Note: Budget Preview 2010-11 – ‘Tightening Purse Strings’
We expect significant positive measures for the rural economy, in line with the government’s agenda of inclusive growth, infrastructure development and educational reform. Announcement on disinvestment and GST roadmap will be tracked closely. The budget is unlikely to cause any negative impact for equities. However, it may fall short of the triggers to boost the markets. The expected excise hike could act as a near-term depressant for certain sectors
Fiscal prudence is expected to be the primary agenda of Budget 2010-11. This is certainly not the year for industry-specific freebies or any galloping gross budgetary support. Instead, the Finance Minister will aim at bringing down fiscal deficit, largely through stimulus withdrawals, disinvestments and 3G auctions, among others. Inflation control measures (mainly food inflation) will also be a focus area.
Keep profit booking at higher levels, hold delivery, do not over trade stay light, siting on cash will WIN. Budget my surprise all either way. Avoid this pre budget positions.
Happy Budgeting.. oh!! Happy trading..
‘Tightening Purse Strings’
Corporate Snippets ..
SAIL in talks with some companies for acquiring coking coal blocks in Australia, New Zealand, Mozambique and Indonesia to achieve its production targets. (BL)
RIL may ask for more time to sweeten LyondellBasell bid. (FE)
Tata Motors appoints Ralf Speth as CEO of Jaguar Land Rover with the overall responsibility for its operations. (ET)
Swiss loan puts Wockhardt in a spot of bother. (ET)
Three international investors have decided to sell their holdings in Vedanta on concerns over its human rights record. (ET)
Navratna companies such as IOC, NTPC, ONGC and SAIL are likely to get ‘Maharatna’ status within the next 60-90 days. (ET)
Government allows ONGC and GAIL India to take 8.4% and 4.2% stake respectively, in a pipeline that China is building in Myanmar to transport gas from offshore blocks A-1 and A-3. (BL)
BPCL arm strikes gas in Mozambique. (FE)
Dr Reddys’ Laboratories to move 25% more Betapharm production to India. (BS)
M&M’s farm equipment sector is looking for local partners to outsource the assembly of its newly-launched low-cost 15HP tractor, Yuvraj. (FE)
Dishman Pharma has entered into a strategic alliance with a California-based biotech company Codexis. (ET)
Pre Market Commentary ..
We expect a weak start in India amid concerns on monetary tightening worldwide. One needs to be careful amid constant flow of news and heightened market volatility across asset classes. Inflation is threatening to touch double digits though the RBI maintains it won’t hike rates before April. But then the RBI too could surprise if inflation shoots up sharply.
The bears will be pleasantly surprised as investors find themselves in a season of surprises. After China’s unexpected second hike in the reserve ratio last week, the Fed has increased the discount rate by 25 basis points. The US central bank said the move reflects improvements in the US economy and does not reflect a change in policy.
Late last week, Fed chief Ben Bernanke had indicated a move was coming, but no many anticipated any action between meetings. The dollar is up while gold prices have slipped further. Crude oil too is also up. The Fed move came after Wall Street trading, where US stocks gained in a volatile session. European shares advanced but Asian markets are mixed. China market remains shut.
Nestle India, SKF India and Wyeth will announce their results today.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment on Thursday at Rs3.51bn on a provisional basis while the local funds were net sellers of Rs1.22bn, according to figures published on the NSE's web site. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net sellers of Rs479.9mn. On Wednesday, FIIs were net buyers of Rs12.24bn in the cash segment, while Mutual Funds were net buyers at Rs2.62bn, according to SEBI web site.
Thursday, February 18, 2010
सेन्सेक्स (16327.28) -101.07 अंक गिरकर, नीफ़्टी (4887.75) -26.25 अंक गिरकर, बंद..
Food Inflation steady near 18%
MOSERBAER: Our delivery call, NOW ON MOVE...
LOOKING GOOD ON
CHARTS
hold...................for ............
BLAST...........SAVE THIS MESSAGE
Sector Watch : Metal, Educational, Food Based, Healthcare, Sugar, Cement Stocks
Corporate Snippets
± BHEL to hire 8,000 people in the next two years to meet growing domestic demand. (ET)
± Abbott labs has announced an open offer to acquire 20% of Solvey Pharma India at Rs3,054 per share. (ET)
± Union Bank of India will price its public issue in a range of Rs60-66 per share. (ET)
± JK Lakshmi Cement to raise Rs6bn via ECBs and rupee term loans in the next quarter to finance its Greenfield projects. (ET)
± Mahindra Satyam is looking to hire around 5,000 people, including freshers and experienced professionals, by the end of next month. (BS)
± Havells India plans to produce ceramic metal halide (CMH) lamps which are designed for indoor and outdoor lighting applications. (BS)
± Novartis is looking to buy out the remaining stake in US-based eye care group Alcon by the end of this year. (BS)
± Areva T&D India has been awarded a Rs1.2bn contract for electrical Balance of Plant (eBOP) by L&T Power for state utility, Madhya Pradesh Power Generating Company Ltd. (BS)
± L&T General Insurance is ready to launch its operations in the next three-five months. (BS)
± SpiceJet will start flights on international routes by this year if it receives all the requisite approvals. (BL)
± Chettainad Cement is planning to raise its capacity to 25mtpa by 2020 from 8.5mtpa currently. (ET)
Economic snippets
± Government to ban FDI in Tobacco sector. (ET)
± Prime minister’s economic advisory council has pitched for a single Cenvat rate, which would be higher than the current 8%. (ET)
± India has retained its top slot in gold consumption. (ET)
± Tax heavens pose a threat to security because of their complex and secret laws, says the finance ministry. (ET)
± Government is considering selling part of its stake in PSU banks to LIC and GIC. (FE)
± Banks want the deadline for the implementation of base rate to be extended by three months. (FE)
± The government is confident that food prices will start easing from April when the rabi harvest hits the market. (BS)
FIIs were net buyers in the cash segment on Wednesday at Rs5.2bn on a provisional basis while the local funds were net buyers of Rs1.97bn, according to figures published on the NSE's web site. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers of Rs7.77bn. On Tuesday, FIIs were net buyers of Rs2.57bn in the cash segment, while Mutual Funds were net sellers at Rs590mn, according to SEBI web site.
Market Commentary ...
Today,we expect a subdued opening owing to mixed global cues. Asian markets are down mostly, barring Japan. Chinese markets will resume trading next week. US stocks closed higher and European stocks rose for a third straight session. We expect a choppy session with a slightly positive bias. The run-up if any to the budget can be used to get out of event-related counters.
The spurts of green in recent times give some confidence that the world has weathered the financial storm well so far. We still have to get out of the woods and on to a highway. For every 2-3 good news is encountered with a set of bad news, which sometimes triggers unnecessary panic. China is overheated while Europe is facing certain debt issues. The US is growing but the quality of recovery is questionable. Unemployment is still pretty high in the matured economies.
For India, the big issue is inflation and its broader economic fallout. Interest rates are set to head north, slowly but surely; need not be steadily though. The Government has limited elbow room on account of a bloated fiscal deficit. With the economy doing well, a partial rollback of fiscal stimulus is definitely on the cards.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
सेन्सेक्स (16415.91) 189.23 अंक चढ्कर, नीफ़्टी (4910.75)55.00.. अंक चढ्कर, बंद..
NIFTY : Our call trading srtong, hold for 4945 Intraday
SAIL : Our delivery call on move HOLD
RELIANCE : HOLD now trading at 1034, hold for 1050 plus
ABAN : target complited, revised sl cost to cost and hold for 1264 and 1300
15 DAYS CALL
BUY AND HOLD
Hexaware will declare its annual results today.
Hold Jain Irrigation now trading strong at 903, hold for 945 TODAY ITSELF..
Jain Irrigation
11 additional stocks in the F&O segment ..here is list...
The NSE will introduce 11 additional stocks in the F&O segment.
Videocon Industries Ltd,
Godrej Industries Ltd,
Adani Enterprises,
Apollo Tyres,
Areva T&D India,
BGR Energy Systems,
Fortis Healthcare,
Jain Irrigation Systems,
Mcleod Russel India,
Mundra Port & SEZ and
Onmobile Global.
Pre Market Idea .
Buy and Hold Century Textiles at 494
SL 477, HOLD for Target Rs510 & 525 plus
Buy NIFTY at 4877 SL 4800
hold for 4897, 4910 and 4945 plus
Corporate Snippets
± Dutch firm Lyondell Basell Industries’ agreement with its creditors, that will help its emergence from Chapter11, could hit Reliance Industries plans. (FE)
± Government has demanded another US$2.7mn from Reliance Industries towards royalty and profit petroleum payments on gas produced from the Krishna-Godavari (KG) D6 for the six-month period from April-September 2009, arguing that the company did not take into account the marketing margin it levies while calculating the dues. (ET)
± Bharti Airtel said the acquisition of Zain Group's African assets would result in a total payout of US$9bn, which includes any loans payable by the operating companies to Zain Group. (BL)
± TCS said it will review salary increment plans by this month-end, as signs of revival of demand in the sector get stronger by the day. (ET)
± Entering the business of combat vehicles manufacturing for the defence sector, Tata Motors plans to bid to supply light bullet-proof vehicles to the Indian Army, with a possible order size of Rs3.5bn. (BS)
± Tata Motors said it has cut production by about 5-10% in its commercial vehicle business since January due to shortage of key components like trucks/bus radial tyres. (BL)
± Tata Motors plans to increase prices of its commercial vehicles by 1-2% from April when the new emission norms become effective. (ET)
± Tata Motors is looking to offload stake in its finance arm, Tata Motors Finance. (ET)
± Italian defence and aerospace manufacturer Finmeccanica unit AgustaWestland and Tata Sons signed a JV to assemble AW119 helicopters in Hyderabad. (BS)
± BHEL will sign a MoU with Japan's Toshiba Corp for a transmission and distribution joint venture to offer turnkey services in the country’s power transmission sector and set up focus on the distribution segment as well. (BL)
Pre Market Commentary
The difficulties seem to take a back seat as the market is slated to open in the green. US stocks took off well after a President’s Day break following better-than-expected quarterly results from Merck and Barclays. Commodity prices and shares got a boost from a weaker dollar.
A kind of suspense continues on the outcome of the budget which is keeping investors on tenterhooks. With LIC expecting to invest further ~Rs100bn in the equity markets by March-end, many hope to quickly ride past the 5000 mark around budget time.
The Dow Jones rose 170 points, its biggest daily gain since Nov. 9 ‘09. The S&P 500 was up 1.8% while the Nasdaq added 1.4%. Asian markets are all up ~2%.
With most of the major Asian markets back with a bang we expect a solid start. However, one must not forget possibilities of a partial and calibrated rollback of the fiscal stimulus. Another daunting task for the government is to cap inflation which is on the verge of crossing double digit.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Jain Irrigationl: First target achived at 900 up bu more then +7.67%
Jain Irrigation
TODAY ITSELF!!
HOLD FOR 1100 PLUS THIS WEEK
JAIN IRRIGATION trading strong up by 2% at 833, hold for 877 plus target
Fantastic performance
of our last recommendation
JAIN IRRIGATION
trading strong
up by 2% at 833,
hold for 877 plus target
Trading ideas (Time period: 1-3 days)
Inflation – January 2010
± WPI basket continues to rise as it increases 8.56%
± Primary goods index continues to surge on back of higher prices of food articles
± Food products prices cause higher manufactured goods index
± Fuel index rises 6.9% yoy as crude oil price increase
Corporate Snippets
± Rural Electrification Corporation plans to raise US$700mn through External Commercial Borrowing (ECB) and Export Credit Assistance (ECA). (BS)
± BP Plc has joined the race with RIL to acquire a majority stake in Canadian oil-sand major, Value Creation, with an offer of US$1.2bn. (BS)
± PVR Cinemas has decided to terminate its agreement to acquire real estate developer DLF’s exhibition hall business, DT Cinemas. (BS)
± Ballarpur Industries has put in a bid close to US$200m for acquiring Malaysia’s largest integrated paper manufacturer GS Paper & Packaging Group (ET)
± Indiabulls Real Estate is considering the demerger of its wholesale trading business, to unlock value from the venture. (BS)
± Work on Jaypee Power Ventures Limited (JPVL)’s, a subsidiary of Jaypee Group, 2,700MW hydro project in Arunachal may commence by 2011. (BS)
± SBI to provide interest-free seed capital of upto Rs1m to aspiring entrepreneurs under a new scheme – SBI SMILE. (ET)
± Shoppers’ Stop plans to add 1mn sq ft over the next three years. (BS)
± Bharat Electronics is likely to end the present financial year with an order book of over Rs120bn, a growth of 20% during the year. (BS)
Pre Market Commentary...
We expect a steady start today. Japan and South Korea have gained modestly while stock benchmarks in Europe rose marginally. Avoid taking any major call on either side. Use the uncertainty and consolidation to rejig your portfolio.
The uncertainness in recent times does not really offer much of a choice to take a chance. Brazil’s market is shut on account of the Carnival while a few Asian markets are closed for the Lunar New Year. For India and other world markets that are open for trading, there are hardly any reasons to celebrate - at least for the time being.
If anything, worries have got compounded of late. Concerns over China’s monetary tightening, debt troubles in the EU and the jobless economic recovery in the US are among the woes. Back home, while things appear to be getting better for the economy, inflation, at the same time, is threatening to cross double digits soon. Budget is just a few days away and could herald partial and calibrated rollback of the fiscal stimulus. Monsoon will be crucial, as India can hardly afford another bad rainy season.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Buy IDFC hold for 2days ~ HOT CALL!!
IDFC
HOT CALL
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TATA MOROTS : target achived, hold with revised SL 679.90 target 714 and 724 plus
Corporate Snippets
Reliance Communications plans to buy 2mn CDMA handsets for Rs3.4bn from Chinese telecom vendor Huawei Technologies. (BS)
SAIL denies any dialogue with South Korea’s Posco for a possible joint venture at Kulti in West Bengal. (ET)
JSW Steel is evaluating proposals to acquire coal mines overseas. (BS)
SCI plans to acquire in phases Capesize vessels and VLCCs four each. (BL)
NMDC is likely to file a revised draft papers for follow-on public offer. (mint)
Arvind plans to scale up organic denim biz. (ET)
Shriram Transport Finance is looking aggressively for more acquisitions. (BS)
Cabinet is likely to approve SAIL’s share sale plan on February 18. (DNA)
GSS America plans to raise up to US$75mn through QIP, FCCB, and GDR & ADR to fuel its inorganic growth plans. (BS)
Dewan Housing plans to launch a new subsidiary, NewCo for an investment of Rs1bn and also plans to divest 20% to PE investor. (BS)
West Bengal allots 505 acres for Rs70bn Adhunik Corp proposed steel & power Facility. (ET)
US markets will be closed today as well on account of the Presidents’ Day holiday.
Markets in China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Malaysia are shut today for the Lunar New Year.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash segment on Thursday at Rs2.11bn on a provisional basis while the local funds were net buyers of just Rs608.2mn, according to figures published on the NSE's web site. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers of Rs10.77bn. On Wednesday, FIIs were net sellers of Rs236mn in the cash segment, while Mutual Funds were net buyers at Rs2.67bn, according to SEBI web site.
Today Listing
(1) Vascon Engg. (BSE Code : 533156) (B Group)
(2) Syncom Healthcare (BSE Code : 533157) (B Group)
Pre Market Commentary ...
Today, we expect a flat to slightly positive start for Indian markets with a likelihood of another short-covering-led bounce. Do not get carried away by any sudden spurt if any as the upside too could get capped sooner than later. In the near term, the Nifty could rise to the 5000 levels again; and perhaps cross 5000 before the Budget. On the whole, the market will remain volatile, largely owing to external factors and concerns over FII outflows. Outcome of the Budget will be another factor to determine near-term direction.
The market remains in a precarious situation. It is time to keep your heart, mind, eyes and ears open before taking a decision. The extended weekend brought mixed news. The industrial output data for December surpassed all optimistic estimates. China surprised by raising the reserve ratio for banks. Data also showed that Eurozone growth came to a halt in the last quarter of 2009. Among the other bad news was of course the blast in Pune just as India and Pakistan get ready to resume bilateral dialogue. On the M&A front, reports suggest that Kuwait-based Zain is said to have accepted a $10.7bn offer from Bharti Airtel for its African assets.
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