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Friday, December 25, 2009
Year End Thermometer of Mutual Funds
Key observations
± On a fortnightly basis, NAVs of most equity diversified funds ended in the red with advance:decline ratio at 19:170. Category average was down by 1.2%. However, mid-caps continued to be in the top quartile. Top three gainers this fortnight were Taurus Ethical (+3.7%), Canara Robeco Emerging Equities (+1.8%) and Reliance Equity Opportunities (1.8%). Large-cap funds continued to underperform the category and the benchmark indices.
± Among the sectoral funds, Information Technology and Pharma oriented funds led the charts on a fortnightly basis. Top three gainers were ICICI Pru Technology (+2.7%), Birla SL New Millennium (+2.6%) and UTI Pharma & Healthcare (+2.0%). On an average, pharma funds’ NAV delivered a return of 1.8%, whereas Banking and Finance oriented funds’ NAVs ended down. Top three losers belonged to this sector, namely UTI Banking Sector (-4.6%), Religare Banking-Reg (-4.9%) and JM Fin Services Sector (-5%).
± Tax- saving funds also exhibited poor performance as their NAVs ended lower. The category average was down by 1.4% this fortnight. Funds with large corpuses were able to contain the downfall, namely ICICI Pru Tax Plan (-0.2%), HDFC TaxSaver (-0.3%) and Reliance Tax Saver (-0.6%). However, funds with smaller corpuses saw a drastic fall in their NAVs, viz. LIC MF Tax Plan, Edelweiss ELSS and JM Tax Gain. Their NAV was down by ~2.4% on a fortnightly basis.
± Among the balanced fund category, most of the fund NAVs declined on a fortnightly basis. However, capital oriented funds with lower equity exposure fell compared to others. Birla Sun Life Capital Protection Oriented -3Yrs, HDFC Balanced and DWS Capital Protection Oriented were the only three funds to deliver a positive return of 0.1%. The benchmark Crisil Balanced Fund Index was down by 1.6% on a fortnightly basis.
± Gold continued to under-perform this fortnight. Gold ETF NAVs were down by ~4.1%. Banking ETFs, especially Public Sector Undertaking, underperformed on the ETF charts on fears of an impending monetary tightening. Junior Bees, though down by 1%, topped the ETF chart on a fortnightly basis.
Thursday, December 24, 2009
सेन्सेक्स (17360.61) 129.50 अंक चढ्कर, नीफ़्टी (5178.40) 33.80 अंक चढ्कर, बंद..
Nifty closes at 2009 high
Nifty to close at new 2009 high of 5,178.40. It was just shy of the 5,200 mark and touched an intraday high of 5,197.90. The benchmark indices continued their upmove for the second consecutive day and closed higher for the day as well as for this week.
Our Morning call Bhushan Steel at 1426 CLOSE TO TARGET
BOOK PROFIT
The stock had been consolidating in a narrow range between Rs1,378-1,310 since last two weeks alongwith the support of 50-DMA. On Wednesday, the stock attempted to break out from the upper-end of this trading range with higher-than-average volumes. From the current level, the stock can only move towards one direction, i.e. upwards. The daily RSI has also given a positive divergence, indicating that price would start moving up after facing stiff resistance around the levels of Rs1,375-1,378 zone. We recommend buy on the stock from the above mentioned technical observations. Maintain a stop loss of Rs1,340 and go long for a target of Rs1,450 in the coming trading sessions.
The stock had been consolidating in a narrow range between Rs1,378-1,310 since last two weeks alongwith the support of 50-DMA. On Wednesday, the stock attempted to break out from the upper-end of this trading range with higher-than-average volumes. From the current level, the stock can only move towards one direction, i.e. upwards. The daily RSI has also given a positive divergence, indicating that price would start moving up after facing stiff resistance around the levels of Rs1,375-1,378 zone. We recommend buy on the stock from the above mentioned technical observations. Maintain a stop loss of Rs1,340 and go long for a target of Rs1,450 in the coming trading sessions.
Our yesterday buy SUZLON, RCOM & DLF
Our yesterday
buy SUZLON, RCOM & DLF
ALL TRADING ABOVE TARGET
BANG ON TRAGETS
Buy?? // Sell?? BRFL get complite SMS get paid...
STOCK OF THE DAY!!
BRFL
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RIL : no jai no viru....
Above 1064,Don't remain short.
Stock will zoom to kiss 1094-1100 plus
looking strong on charts
Today catch it above
1077 for super gains.
BoI to launch 8% home loan plan on January 01, 2010. (BS)
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GTL Infra has agreed to buy Aircel Towers for Rs40bn. (ET)
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ICICI Bank may sell 3i Infotech stake to US PE firm. (BS)
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ONGC issues Rs20bn bonds to refinance debt it took to acquire Imperial Energy. (ET)
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FIIs were net buyers in the cash segment on Wednesday at Rs7.7bn on a provisional basis. The local funds were net sellers of Rs130.2mn, according to figures published on the NSE's web site. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers at Rs17.7bn. FIIs were net buyers of Rs2.25bn in the cash segment on Tuesday. Mutual Funds were net sellers of Rs1.74bn on the same day.
Pre Market Commentary ...
Today we expect a higher opening. Asian markets are mostly up. US market got a boost from technology space, though the blue chips closed flat. European shares hit 14-month high. With several holidays on the horizon, the market could yet again turn choppy and clueless.While the bulls are eating Christmas cakes, the bears seem to be eating humble pie as the Nifty ended well above 5100 and is now eyeing a new high for 2009. Wednesday’s sudden surge would have taken many by surprise. We reiterate that further short covering is not ruled out ahead of the F&O expiry. Also, some long build-up may take place amid signs that the economy and India Inc. may do better.
But clearly, any rise will not be sustainable in the absence of incremental good news – local as well as global. Rich valuations and concerns on an impending reversal in stimulus steps are among the major headwinds. One should not get carried away by any sharp swings in the near term as the market remains in a consolidation phase.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
सेन्सेक्स (17231.11) 539.11अंक चढ्कर, नीफ़्टी (5144.60) 158.75 अंक चढ्कर, बंद..
Market rallies 539 pts on FM comments, divestment talks
FM says: 10% growth in 2-3 years within our reach
The GDP growth for the next two quarters was
“likely to be bright”,
Mukherjee said.
*PM POwer Grid plan to take up FPO plan early FY11
Intraday Call |: Buy DLF for traget and SL get paid
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Hold DISHTV at 41.90 now trading STRONG next target 44
Fantastic performance of our last recommendation
Aban Offshore has repaid bonds worth Rs8bn along with accrued interest. (ET)
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Sector Watch : Pharma, Banking PSU & Steel
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Reliance Power is likely to invest over Rs 60bn over the next four to five years to produce 6.6bn tons of coal per annum. (FE)
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Reliance Industries announced its third successive gas discovery in a deepwater exploration block in the Krishna-Godavari basin, which the company ha
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Adani Power
Shares of Adani Power ended lower by 0.5% to end at Rs97. The company announced that Adani Power Rajasthan Ltd a 100% subsidiary of the company has been awarded Letter of Intent by Rajasthan Rajya Vidhyut Utpadan Nigam Ltd for purchase of upto 1,200 MW of power on long-term basis.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment on Tuesday at Rs1.1bn on a provisional basis. The local funds were net buyers of Rs5.1bn, according to figures published on the NSE's web site. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers at Rs11.97bn. FIIs were net sellers of Rs2.58bn in the cash segment on Monday.
Pre Market Commentary ..
Today, we expect the market to open lower as global cues are pretty inconclusive. The Nifty will continue to trade in a range of 4900-5100. Some short covering is not ruled out in the run up to the F&O expiry. Support is expected to kick in at around 4900. Protecting the gains made so far in the year should be the aim instead of loading up more.If only we knew the unexpected, Christmas season would have brought some cheer. With only five trading sessions to go in 2009, don’t get too perturbed by the market movement.
Overall trend has been extremely lackluster and is unlikely to change dramatically anytime soon. Volume has also dipped as traders and investors alike take a pause after a stellar rally. In the New Year, the market will have plenty to consider like fund flows, quarterly earnings, impending rate hike, reversal of fiscal stimulus, budget and global developments. Stay on the sidelines till then.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Our morning call Buy SASKEN is going strong at 198 !!!!!! 1st trarget achiveb
TARGET ARCHIVED AT 198
OUR SMS THIS MOORING WAS
"BUY Sasken at Rs181
SL 144 HOLD
for Target Rs197
& 204"
Our morning call Buy DISKTV is going strong at 42.30 !!!!!!
TARGET ACHIVED
BOOK PROFIT
HOLD FOR
intra day target of 44
Our morning call Buy NTPC is going strong and target achieved at 211 !!!!!!
HOLD FOR NEXT
TARGET AT 217
TRAIL SL COST TO COST
F&O Ideas ...
Buy DISH TV INDIA Dec Future at Rs41
for the target price of Rs44
and stop loss 39.90 [Lot size: 5,150.]
Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs15,450
and net maximum loss Rs7,725.
"
Crude oil for January delivery fell 89 cents to settle at $72.47 a barrel.
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Reliance Infrastructure is on track to commission over Rs100bn worth of infrastructure projects in the next seven months. (BS)
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Fortis Healthcare, post-acquisition of 10 hospitals from the Wockhardt group, will spend around Rs2.5bn to complete the ongoing hospitals in Mumbai,
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TVS Motor plans to launch diesel auto-rickshaws as part of its strategy to grow in the domestic market. (ET)
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FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment on Monday at Rs2.92bn on a provisional basis. The local funds were net buyers of Rs3.54bn, according to figures published on the NSE's web site. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net sellers at Rs517.2mn. FIIs were net buyers of Rs834mn in the cash segment on Friday.
Pre Market Intraday Idea ..
Buy NTPC at Rs204 stop loss Rs194
target Rs211 & 217
BUY Sasken at Rs181
SL 144 HOLD
for Target Rs197
& 204
Pre Market Commentary ..
Today,we must thank to firm global cues, we expect a higher opening and another choppy day. Can’t call it Christmas shopping, though! On the whole, the current lackluster trend is expected to continue. The Nifty will find some support and could surpass the 5000 mark again. The near-term trading range may be between 4900-5100. The right thing appears to be really on a long holiday. The key indices have gone nowhere in the past 3-4 weeks and the trend has been extremely dull.
Traded volume too has tapered off and is likely to remain low in the face of the upcoming holidays.Volatility will prevail given the murky outlook and F&O expiry next week. Stock centric action will continue based on the news flow. Short term traders are likely to take profit at every rise. A major break down is ruled out for now but avoid risky bets. Don’t read too much into what goes in the market these days as bulls and bears both seem to be lacking conviction.
Monday, December 21, 2009
RELIANCE : first target achived at 1033 hold for next target of 1077
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RIL : no jai no viru.... CLOSE to first target
Our morning call
Buy RIL is going strong
at 1027
HOLD FOR
TARGET
Axis bank's overseas bond issue put on hold, to wait for spreads to narrow. (BS)
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NTPC proposes power project in Ghana in exchange for LNG. (Mint)
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FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment on Friday at Rs2.07bn on a provisional basis. The local funds were net buyers of Rs3.31bn, according to figures published on the NSE's web site. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net sellers at Rs6.22bn. FIIs were net buyers of Rs4.89bn in the cash segment on Thursday. Mutual Funds were net sellers of Rs272mn on the same day.
Pri Market Commentary ...
Today, the outlook is a flat to tad higher opening. Asian markets are mixed. US market got a boost from technology on Friday. Banks pulled down Europe. Christmas is upon us, and the countdown to 2010 has begun. After a stellar year for equities (following a disastrous 2008), some fatigue has set in. So, a wait-and-watch mode is the order for now. The market will continue to consolidate in the remaining sessions, and perhaps even beyond that. Since there will be two extended weekends, volume could dip and volatility might rise. Overall, the market will be insipid.
The near-term trigger will be how the policymakers execute their ‘exit’ strategies. In India, the fear is for an early reversal in loose money policy given the spike in inflation. Earnings will be watched as well, though the focus is now on FY11. Budget will also have a bearing on sentiment.Dollar’s movement and Fed’s action will be crucial for world markets. Liquidity is not an issue for India, but it is time to be selective.
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