Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Last day of 2008 -Good Luck for next year ...

Today, we expect the bulls to remain in command, as most global markets are up.Most people have yet to understand what went wrong in 2008. We can be creative enough to write and rewrite history and its impact. The fact remains that the year has come to an end but the worries have not. Thankfully, the year-end rally that seemed to be over last week found a new lease of life. The main indices have gained 4% each in the past two days, buoyed by a firm trend in global markets and expectations surrounding the new stimulus package.


Media has been abuzz with speculation of another round of fiscal measures to give further fillip to a slowing economy. And, with inflation cooling off substantially, the RBI too is expected to trim key short-term rates and the CRR. An announcement on fiscal stimulus and rate cuts is expected soon.

The market may turn a bit choppy and sideways in the next couple of days as several key global markets will be shut on account of the New Year. Japan and Korea will resume trading only on January 5. Others may not see any meaningful trading till at least Monday. India Inc will start revealing its now much awaited report card in the next few sessions. Though the market has already priced in some bad news on this front, one cannot afford to ignore corporate earnings. Politics too will continue to be one of the dominant themes going ahead.


On the whole, the undertone doesn't appear to be too pessimistic as of now. The recent spurt, which took a bit of a breather last week, is likely to continue for a while unless we get fresh bad news (local or global).

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