Friday, February 18, 2011
Nifty – Long Calendar Straddle
Sell Nifty Feb 5500 CE and 5500 PE at 120 and Buy Nifty March 5500 CE and 5500 PE at 320. Net premium out flow is around 200. This is an excellent strategy for around 14 days and can yield around 200 points premium in profit. So this gives a Risk Reward of around 1:1. The break even is at 5300 and 5700, however the B.E.P is calculate just adding the premium. This is an excellent strategy as the time decay is adjusted against the selling of Feb 5500 Options and the swings in Nifty will be captured by the Long 5500 March options.
Market Commentary ..
A steep drop in food inflation helped the Indian market stretch the ongoing recovery to five straight trading sessions. The Nifty surpassed 5500 and closed well above it. A move past 5500 has triggered hopes of a move towards 5690. It remains to be seen if the Nifty is able to keep its head above 5500.
Volumes and turnover improved on Thursday, which is a welcome sign. But, FII flows remain erratic and are yet to signal a decisive turnaround. The start today is likely to be a good one on the back of a healthy trend across global markets. Things may turn a little choppy later in the day as market participants would be cautious ahead of next week’s Budget session.
Railway Budget is scheduled for Feb. 24 while the Union Budget will be presented on Feb. 28. GDP data for Q3 will also be released on the same day. One will also have to contend with the F&O expiry next week.
The Indian market may meet some resistance after a strong pull-back. The good thing is that sentiment has improved. The broad range for the Nifty is expected at 5300-5700.
18.02.2011
NIFTY FO CLOSED @ 5550 AS ON 17.02.2011
NIFTY FO has resistance @ 5577 - 5591; above which other resistance levels are @ 5603 -5613. In down side support levels are @ 5519 - 5503 levels; below which other support levels are @ 5493 - 5481 levels in FEBRUARY - 2011. I am positive for next week above 5613 level but be with the trend. Let the market decide further moves. As we are saying from many days Buying is suggested in falls only... and its still a better strategy in the given scenario...... One can go for buy at those levels also, but in absence of that its time to BOOK PROFIT now. This is a pessimistic outlook but that's the way we tend to be, in this market.
Corporate Snippets
± SAIL has initiated the process for its Rs70bn follow-on public offer and is planning to enter the market by March end or early April. (ET)
± The government will expedite a decision on the controversial US$9.6bn Cairn-Vedanta deal but it will not accept any deadline from private companies. (ET)
± NTPC has sought long-term pricing comfort from Petronet LNG Ltd. (BS)
± BHEL has announced it has successfully test run its first indigenously manufactured turbine developed in collaboration with GE of the US and plans to deliver two more units by the end of the current fiscal. (BL)
± IOC is losing a record Rs2.4bn per day on selling auto and cooking fuel below cost as government continues to bar it from raising rates in line with spurt in raw material cost. (ET)
± IOC has sought a full rollback of duty on crude to keep petroleum prices under check. (ET)
± Close on the heels of a settlement of a Class Action law suit in the US for US$125mn, Mahindra Satyam is planning to sue the former Satyam management and the company’s erstwhile auditor Price Waterhouse for a possible monetary damages claim. (ET)
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Nifty – Long Calendar Straddle
Sell Nifty Feb 5500 CE and 5500 PE at 120 and Buy Nifty March 5500 CE and 5500 PE at 320. Net premium out flow is around 200. This is an excellent strategy for around 14 days and can yield around 200 points premium in profit. So this gives a Risk Reward of around 1:1. The break even is at 5300 and 5700, however the B.E.P is calculate just adding the premium. This is an excellent strategy as the time decay is adjusted against the selling of Feb 5500 Options and the swings in Nifty will be captured by the Long 5500 March options.
RELINFRA; Intraday target achived at 641.90, Book profit
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Market Commentary ..
The start of 2011 hasn’t been great for Indian markets, but lately there are some signs of a reversal in that trend. The key question is whether the current upswing will sustain?
We may see some consolidation in the run up to the Budget and the main indices may remain in a sideways pattern. Unless there is follow-up buying by big players (read institutions), the current rally may run out of gas after a while.
At the same time, any fresh downside will be limited as earnings growth has been good if not spectacular. Overall, the India growth story is not under any major threat. The Government appears to be taking a few right steps in a bid to shore up UPA II’s sagging image. Globally too, things seem to be settling down.
So, medium- to long-term investors must utilise any further dips to snap up quality names. Traders should remain a little cautious as volatility is here to stay.
The Nifty is expected to trade in the range of 5380-5450, before hitting 5600. The broad range could be between 5300 and 5600. Watch out for the 200-DMA level of 5630.
NIFTY FO CLOSED @ 5476 AS ON 15.02.2011
NIFTY FO has resistance @ 5490 - 5509, above which other resistance levels are @ 5519 -5533. In down side support levels are @ 5447 - 5430 levels; below which other support levels are @ 5419 - 5409 levels in FEBRUARY - 2011. I am positive for next week above 5540 level but be with the trend. Let the market decide further moves. As we are saying from many days Buying is suggested in falls only... and its still a better strategy in the given scenario...... One can go for buy at those levels also, but in absence of that its time to BOOK PROFIT now. This is a pessimistic outlook but that's the way we tend to be, in this market.
Corporate Snippets
± IOC share sale delayed to next fiscal, a delay of at least a few months from an earlier slated January launch on unfavourable market conditions. (BS)
± Tata Motors is redrawing distribution plans of its joint venture with Fiat as sales number of the Italian carmaker has not been up to expectations. (ET)
± TCS expects to generate US$1bn revenue over five years by providing technology solutions to small-and-medium business units. (ET)
± HCL Technologies unveiled its global enterprise mobility laboratory in Singapore. (FE)
± SBI is expected to launch the first tranche of its Rs100bn retail bond issue on Monday. (FE)
± The Central Bureau of Investigation questioned a top executive of Unitech as part of a probe into a telecom corruption scandal. (BS)
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Book profit in Indian Bank at Rs220.5
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Book Profit in Hdfc Bank recommended on Friday at Rs2075
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Buy & hold Federal Bank at Rs387 with SL of Rs381 for target of Rs399, 403
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Allied Digital ; Our yesterday call BUYER CAP freeezzzzzzzz
buy call given at 77.90, target 155
hold.............save this message
hold.............save this message
Book profit ...bang on target
Sell Deccan Chronicle Ltd Feb Future in range of Rs80 - 81 for the target price of Rs75 with a stop loss placed at Rs83.
Lot size: 2000
Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs12,000 and net maximum loss of Rs6,000.
Market Commentary ..
After a scary fall of last week, the Indian market has bounced back, and how! In just two trading sessions, the Nifty has rallied a whopping 250 points. We expect another positive start but there may be some softening later, as global markets seem to be taking a pause.
Immediate projection of a ‘falling wedge’ is placed at 5650 in the near term and 5350 will act as a strong support for the Nifty. The 200-DMS is placed at 5630.
Some moderation in inflation has offset another bad set of IIP data. End to the civil unrest in Egypt coupled with a drop in oil prices and the continuous strength in the US market have also aided the sentiment.
On the political front there seems to be some relief as well. The Government is likely to announce a JPC probe into the mega 2G scam shortly. As a result, the Budget session may not suffer the same fate as the winter one did.
Curtains will soon come down on yet another earnings season. Tata Steel will declare its Q3 results today.
NIFTY FO CLOSED @ 5455 AS ON 14.02.2011
NIFTY FO has resistance @ 5477 to 5483, above which other resistance levels are @ 5493 to 5510. In down side support levels are @ 5430 to 5409 levels; below which other support levels are @ 5390 to 5370 levels in FEBRUARY - 2011. I am positive for next week above 5510 level but be with the trend. Let the market decide further moves. As we are saying from many days Buying is suggested in falls only. and it�s still a better strategy in the given scenario. One can go for buy at those levels also, but in absence of that its time to BOOK PROFIT now. This is a pessimistic outlook but that's the way we tend to be, in this market.
Corporate Snippets
± Tata group has entered into a joint venture with the US aerospace and defence company Lockheed Martin Corp to make aircraft components for the C-130 transport planes. (BS)
± Reliance Infrastructure will buy back shares aggregating Rs10bn at up to 725 a share. (ET)
± Tata Motors subsidiaries, HV Transmissions and HV Axles, are set to merge to form TML Drivelines, in order to harness synergies and become a total driveline solutions provider. (FE)
± Bharti Airtel’s plans to delist its Zambian arm, Celtel Zambia, have hit a roadblock with the Lusaka Stock Exchange rejecting its application to delist reportedly for “procedural flaws”. (ET)
± Hero Motors sold a stake of 17.6% in Munjal Kiriu Industries, a joint venture with Japan’s Kiriu Corp, to the co-promoter. (BS)
± MoEF gave its conditional go-ahead to JSPL for its six mtpa integrated steel plant and 1,000 Mw captive power plant in Orissa. (BS)
± Fortis Hospitals has made its entry into Kerala with the launch of its first information centre at Thrissur. (BS)
± Cipla is discontinuing a clutch of veterinary medicines in the domestic market. (BL)
± Vijaya Bank might seek a second deadline extension for meeting the 70% provision coverage ratio (PCR) norm even as the pace of rise in its non-performing assets was falling. (BS)
± GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals would hire people to support the promotion of its products in the vaccine, branded generics and speciality segments, among others. (BL)
± Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd is now planning to commercially enter the green energy sector and offer its expertise to food processing and other companies to make them use solid bio-waste for power generation. (BL)
Monday, February 14, 2011
ICICIBANK; Our friday call upby 3.10% at 1037 .... hold
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HANUNG: Our friday call - freexxxxzzzzzzz buyer cap 235.60 BOOKPROFIT
UPBY 20%... JUST IN A TRADING DAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Allied Digital Services Ltd: ‘Selling overdone’ – BUY
CMP Rs78, Target Rs155, Upside 98.7%
± IT survey misconstrued as IT Raid; impact not material
± Results materially below expectation; business largely intact
± Strong selling pressure seems to have abated
± More than commensurate de-rating of valuation makes ADSL a strong value pick
Buy Indian Bank at Rs215 with SL of Rs212 for Target of Rs222
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Buy ICICI bank (1001.60) with s/L 990 tgt 1020, 1030
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Buy and Hold....
Patel Engineering Feb Future in range of Rs199 - 200 for the target price of Rs207 with a stop loss placed at Rs196.
Lot size: 1000
Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs8,000 and net maximum loss of Rs4,000.
Market Commentary ..
Red may the colour of the day but investors will love to see more green on their screens.
From the beginning of the year, investors have been suffering; especially those holding on to counters they love.
Friday’s bounce could well spill over into today’s session, at least in the early morning trade. The global cues are positive. The exit of Egypt’s autocratic ruler Hosni Mubarak and the subsequent drop in oil prices could aid the sentiment. For the Nifty, a breakout above 5400 should pave the way for an extension of the rally towards 5670 levels.
US stocks finished a strong week at multi-year highs on Friday. European stocks reversed losses to end higher as well. Most Asian markets are up smartly this morning.
Watch out for ADAG stocks; besides the Q3 results investors will watch closely all other developments though enough clarifications have been issued. RIL could be a laggard amid reports of a hefty SEBI penalty in connection with the insider trading case. Other key result to keep an eye on today is that of GSK Pharma, Satyam, Unitech and Videocon.
Red may the colour of the day but investors will love to see more green on their screens.
Market to open GREEN &
Relief rally likely to begin
Keep watch on front line Selective stocks
Sector Watch
Sugar, Banking, Finance, Education related,
Retail sector stocks, Bajaj-Tata Group Stocks
Sector Avoid:
Telecom, Mukes-Anil Ambani Stocks
Corporate Snippets
± NTPC in talks with Toshiba Corp to build a pilot project in India to capture and store carbon emissions. (BS)
± SBI raised its base rate and the benchmark prime lending rate by 25bps each. (BS)
± The Bajaj Group mulling a return to scooter manufacturing. (ET)
± SBI plans to sell retail bonds once again to raise Rs20bn. (ET)
± Apollo Tyres plans to set up car radial-tyre plants in Eastern Europe. (ET)
± GE Shipping withdraws the draft red herring prospectus of its subsidiary, Greatship (India) Ltd. (BS)
± M&M has fixed Rs66.55 per share for an open offer to acquire 20% additional stake in EPC Industries from public shareholders. (ET)
± Dexia Group, European banking major may rope in YesBank and IndusInd Bank to takeover its Israel operations. (ET)
± IDFC raises Rs7.65bn in its second bond sale in less than four months, up 66% from the first one. (ET)
± S Kumars Nationwide plans to make it a Rs5bn brand in the next 3-5 years. (BS)
± Uttam Galva, Bhushan Steel and APL Apollo eye Lloyds Steel, which has an annual steelmaking capacity of 0.6mn tonnes. (ET)
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