Friday, March 11, 2011
Buy and Hold.... PNB
Punjab National Bank:
‘Most efficient public bank’ – BUY
CMP Rs1,076, Target Rs1,370, Upside 27.3%
± Food inflation dips to 9.5% for the week ended February 26
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Market Commentary ..
Violence and hostilities, some perhaps stray in nature, have been attracting great attention. Global markets in turn have been swinging to the beat of political turmoil in the MENA and its impact on crude oil. Hostilities in Libya have intensified, especially around oil assets. Even Saudi Arabia seems to be witnessing sporadic protests.
As if the geopolitical risk was not enough, we have been hit by a few ‘not-so-encouraging’ global economic data. China has reported the worst trade deficit in 7 years – it’s first in 12 months. Japan’s GDP for Q4 CY10 has been lowered. South Korea has hiked rates again. Spain’s debt rating has been downgraded. US weekly jobless claims have increased while its trade deficit has worsened.
For India though there is some good news in the form of robust exports and a steep drop in food inflation. January IIP will be out today. Expectations are low and we do not rule out a positive surprise in the data.
The Nifty is likely to be rangebound between 5400-5560. A breakout of this band either side will determine the near-term direction.
Corporate Snippets
± Etisalat, Idea get notices from DoT on license cancellation. (BS)
± Tata Steel raw material cost may go up by US$1bn. (ET)
± Hero Honda to get new name and logo following the exit of Japanese JV partner, Honda Motors. (ET)
± Sesa Goa edges out JSW Steel in battle for Bellary Steel’s assets. (ET)
± Nestle to invest Rs15bn over 2-3 years. (ET)
± Tata Teleservices in planning to go for rights issue to repay debt. (ET)
± Adani Group is considering its second major acquisition in Australia to meet increasing coal demand. (ET)
± Reliance Infra is close to achieving financial closure for its road projects portfolio (ET)
± Tech Mahindra opens new development centre in Germany. (BL)
± Canara Bank raises Rs20bn through QIP issue. (BS)
± Reliance Broadcast is going for a 50:50 JV with RTL Group to launch series of television channels in India. (ET)
± Essar Group has bought 54% stake in Zimbabwe’s state-owned steel maker Zisco for US$750mn. (ET)
Thursday, March 10, 2011
± RIL natural gas D-6 output from KG basin may rise 25% in April. (ET)
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Market Commentary ..
It has been a topsy-turvy week so far, with the key indices oscillating in a tight range amid tepid volumes. Today, we expect a slightly weak start on the back of fresh declines in key global markets and indecisive sentiment on Wall Street.
The near-term outlook is uncertain given the global geopolitical risks and the flare-up in crude. The market appears to be in a limbo and could stay that way till there is material relief in the ongoing political turmoil in the Middle-East. A close below 5490 could reverse the short term uptrend.
The US markets closed flat in a quiet session. Stock indices in Europe closed down at the end of a choppy session. Asian markets are mostly in the red. Japanese shares are leading the fall in the region after its GDP shrank more than estimated in the last quarter.
Brent and Nymex crude oil futures remain elevated amid relentless fighting in Libya and lingering worries over supplies from that region. Libyan oil output is reportedly down by two thirds. Copper closed at an 11-week low while gold rose.
NIFTY FO CLOSED @ 5532 AS ON 09.03.2011
NIFTY FO has resistance @ 5561 to 5573 above which other resistance levels are @ 5588 to 5597. In down side support levels are @ 5509 to 5497 levels; below which other support levels are @ 5485 to 5471 levels in MARCH -2011. I am positive for next week above 5597 level but be with the trend. Let the market decide further moves. As we are saying from many days Buying is suggested in falls only... and its still a better strategy in the given scenario...... One can go for buy at those levels also, but in absence of that its time to BOOK PROFIT now. This is a pessimistic outlook but that's the way we tend to be, in this market.
Corporate Snippets
± Tata Motors to roll out new buses by early next fiscal. (BL)
± Cairn-Vedanta deal likely to get cabinet nod by next week. (ET)
± Hero Investments, promoter of Hero Honda has raised Rs9bn by pledging to Axis Trustee Services. (ET)
± Dr Reddy’s Labs may launch 3 new drugs in US market in next financial year. (BS)
± Canara Bank is raising upto US$440mn via share sale to institutional investors. (ET)
± Tata Power may raise capacity by 1,300MW. (BL)
± HDFC may sell part of non-core investments over next 6-12 months for Rs40bn. (BS)
± Bank of India hikes its deposit rates by 25-75 bps. (BL)
± Central Bank of India proposes to raise about Rs25bn from rights issue. (ET)
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Trading ideas (Time period: 1-3 days)
Canara Bank (BUY, above Rs626, Target Rs645): The daily chart of Canara Bank depicts a bullish Inverted Head & Shoulder formation with prices crossing above the neckline of Rs620 in yesterday’s trading session. With RSI also staging a positive crossover on daily chart supports our buying argument in the counter. The stock this week, has also rebounded sharply from the support of its 50-DMA, which is likely to act as a strong support on any declines, accompanied by spurt in volumes. Based on above mentioned technical evidences, we recommend traders to buy the stock above Rs626 with stop loss of Rs618 for target of Rs645.
Market Commentary ..
The Congress chairperson talked tough and its curtains for the DMK drama. If only some toughness would come on the reform front, the market would have been happier. For now, the two coalition partners have amicably settled the sticky issue of seat-sharing for the TN assembly polls. All eyes are now on Congress’ negotiations with the Trinamool Congress. We can only hope that the so-called political compulsions in the run up to the state polls won’t hamper policy-making any further.
The markets recovered from Monday’s fall on some hope of political stability. We are set for a positive start owing to better global cues and some softening in crude oil. The political unrest in the Middle-East and its neighbourhood has been a concern for a while now. But markets haven’t quite collapsed. Any relief on this front will lift equities and boost risk tolerance yet again.
Other near-term events to watch out for will be the IIP and inflation figures, apart from the mid-quarter RBI review. The Nifty needs to stay above 5520 for a couple of trading sessions in order to make the pullback sustainable.
intraday market
Markets recovery to continue
On account of domestic (Political) &
Global (Crude oil) positive cues
Overall outlook bullish
Sector Watch: Fertilizer, Pharma, Metal, Education, Realty & Tea Stocks
Sector Avoid: Banking, Realty & I.T.
NIFTY FO CLOSED @ 5537 AS ON 08.03.2011
NIFTY FO has resistance @ 5561 � 5577 above which other resistance levels are @ 5593 - 5609. In down side support levels are @ 5517 - 5501 levels; below which other support levels are @ 5490 - 5473 levels in MARCH - 2011. I am positive for next week above 5509 level but be with the trend. Let the market decide further moves. As we are saying from many days Buying is suggested in falls only... and its still a better strategy in the given scenario...... One can go for buy at those levels also, but in absence of that its time to BOOK PROFIT now. This is a pessimistic outlook but that's the way we tend to be, in this market.
Corporate Snippets
± TCS will adopt a differential pricing strategy in different regions and for different sectors for its recently launched iON, a cloud-based business solution for the small and medium business. (BL)
± JSW Steel will be raising Rs10bn from an export credit agency and US$280mn ECB to fund its 2.3-million tonne cold-rolling mill to be set up at its flagship Vijayanagar (Bellary) steel factory. (FE)
± Adani Group is exploring the possibility of acquiring coal assets in Russia and South Africa and plans to buy two more capsize cargo vessels to boost its coal imports. (BL)
± BHEL has chalked out a major capacity expansion programme in the next two years at an investment of Rs6bn. (BL)
± Bharti Airtel said it has acquired up to six-lakh 3G subscribers, which offer higher average revenues. (ET)
± M&M has entered into a global strategic collaboration with US networking equipment major Cisco. (BS)
± The office-bearers of M&M Employees' Union at Nashik plant called off their eight-day long hunger strike after M&M chairman assured the Union to personally hold talks on their demands today in Mumbai. (BS)
± Dabur India said it planned a turnover of Rs50bn for FY12, with more acquisitions in the personal and healthcare segments. (BS)
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
NIFTY FO CLOSED @ 5482 AS ON 07.03.2011
NIFTY FO has resistance @ 5497 � 5509 above which other resistance levels are @ 5517 - 5530. In down side support levels are @ 5430 - 5417 levels; below which other support levels are @ 5403 - 5390 levels in MARCH - 2011.
I am positive for next week above 5530 level but be with the trend. Let the market decide further moves. As we are saying from many days Buying is suggested in falls only... and its still a better strategy in the given scenario...... One can go for buy at those levels also, but in absence of that its time to BOOK PROFIT now. This is a pessimistic outlook but that's the way we tend to be, in this market.
Monday, March 7, 2011
Market Commentary ..
Well, just when the Indian market was looking like adding to the post-Budget gains comes yet another political jolt. The DMK has decided to pull out its ministers from the UPA II, ostensibly on differences over seat-sharing for the upcoming TN assembly polls. The DMK will offer issue-based support though. Whether a formal split with the Congress is in the offing or not remains to be seen. Policy impasse and governance (rather the lack of it) has been one of the factors behind the market’s recent fall. The latest development will add to the worries though political stability is not really a major concern.
We expect a nervous start though things could improve later on if the global markets resume their advance. Crude oil remains at uncomfortable levels amid deteriorating geopolitical situation in Libya and elsewhere in the Middle-East.
Intraday volatility is here to stay so stick to defensive plays. Be a patient buyer rather than buying soon and testing your patience.
NIFTY FO has resistance @ 5555 - 5573; above which
other resistance levels are @ 5588 -5597. In down side
support levels are @ 5517 - 5507 levels; below which
other support levels are @ 5481 - 5470 levels in
MARCH - 2011. I am positive for next week above
5588 level but be with the trend. Let the market decide
further moves. As we are saying from many days
Buying is suggested in falls only... and its still a better
strategy in the given scenario...... One can go for buy at
those levels also, but in absence of that its time to
BOOK PROFIT now. This is a pessimistic outlook but
that's the way we tend to be, in this market.
other resistance levels are @ 5588 -5597. In down side
support levels are @ 5517 - 5507 levels; below which
other support levels are @ 5481 - 5470 levels in
MARCH - 2011. I am positive for next week above
5588 level but be with the trend. Let the market decide
further moves. As we are saying from many days
Buying is suggested in falls only... and its still a better
strategy in the given scenario...... One can go for buy at
those levels also, but in absence of that its time to
BOOK PROFIT now. This is a pessimistic outlook but
that's the way we tend to be, in this market.
Corporate Snippets
± L&T to raise Rs114bn from SBI-led consortium of banks. (BS)
± Lanco Infratech agrees to acquire Australia’s Griffin Coal for ~Rs34bn. (ET)
± Fortis Global Healthcare acquired 28.6% in Lanka Hospitals for ~Rs1.6bn. (ET).
± Hero Honda promoters pledge 5.32% stake with IL&FS Trust for an estimated Rs15.9bn. (ET)
± Green concerns to take a toll on Coal India’s output growth. (ET)
± Nalco to split equity shares of Rs10 into 2 shares worth Rs5 each; the company also approved a 1:1 bonus. (BS)
± Indian Bank aims to expand its branch strength by adding 100 branches across the country by the next financial year. (BS)
± NTPC in talks with German bank KfW for funds to set up power plant in Rajasthan. (BS)
± Bank of India set to buy 51% in Bharti AXA MF. (BS)
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