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The market may turn a bit choppy and sideways in the next couple of days as several key global markets will be shut on account of the New Year. Japan and Korea will resume trading only on January 5. Others may not see any meaningful trading till at least Monday. India Inc will start revealing its now much awaited report card in the next few sessions. Though the market has already priced in some bad news on this front, one cannot afford to ignore corporate earnings. Politics too will continue to be one of the dominant themes going ahead.
Satyam will continue to hog the limelight as the promoters try to restore confidence and trust among various stakeholders. Its board will meet on January 10 to consider strategic options. Change in top management could be in the offing given the enormity of investor backlash. Meanwhile, reports suggest that another top global IT major is eyeing the software major.
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Sharp rise in crude oil fuels Cairn IndiaCairn India reported a net profit of Rs 81.44 crore in Q3 September 2008 as against net loss of Rs 8.40 crore in Q3 September 2007. Total income surged 1258.1% to Rs 107.83 crore in Q3 September 2008 over Q3 September 2007.
Cairn India explores and produces crude oil and natural gas in India
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Shares of Jindal Steel advanced by 7% to Rs904 after reports stated that the company would invest Rs100bn in four years to set up a thermal power plant in Chhattisgarh state. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs918 and a low of Rs842 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on BSE.
Shares of Satyam rallied by over 10% to Rs148 after the company announced that it would get a strategic investor. The company would review "strategic" options and the composition of its board of directors. Satyam appointed DSP Merrill Lynch Ltd. as adviser to help it "enhance shareholder value", the Hyderabad
The upcoming result season may also throw up some negative surprises.
We expect the market to be lackluster and sideways. Investors are likely to remain on the sidelines for the next few days given that companies will soon start announcing quarterly results. Some news is also awaited on the next round of fiscal stimulus and the anticipated rate cuts by the RBI. The central bank is scheduled to undertake a quarterly review of its annual policy at the end of the month. Softening of Indo-Pak tension is seen as a positive. On the whole, earnings will be a key focus area. More than 20% drop in advance tax numbers for the October-December quarter spooked the sentiment on Friday. One only hopes that the bulls will be much better off in 2009 than the year that is just set to pass us by. Some recovery is expected in the second half in terms of improvement in micro as well as macro economic fundamentals. Corporate earnings over the next few quarters will hinge on how fast the economic scenario changes (for the better that is). Right now all is in the realm of speculation. Lots of uncertainties still loom large over the world markets. However, a lot of bad news is already built into the stock prices and investors are just looking for light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully it won't be that of a speeding train (read more bad news).Today, we see the key indices opening in the red again, though not by much. Things could improve during the week after last week's 7% drop. Asian markets are mostly down this morning, led by South Korea's Kospi. Crude oil is up over 4% at around $39 per barrel. US stocks closed marginally higher on Friday while European markets were shut for Christmas holidays.Misfortune seems to have dominated most events, places and persons this year.
Just three days to go before the curtains come down on what has been a disastrous year for world markets. The Indian market is down over 50%, that too after hitting all-time highs in early January (a year best forgotten for bulls). We will of course not go into the details of what exactly went wrong this year, as it is already well articulated by now.
Reliance Power slipped 3% to Rs114. The company is raising around Rs115bn via syndicated loans, and US$500-600mn through ECBs to finance its upcoming UMPP at Sasan in Gujarat, reports stated. The scrip touched intra-day high of Rs121.70 and low of Rs113.90 and recorded volume of over 18,00,000 shares on BSE.
Reliance Infrastructure fell 6% to Rs542. According to reports, company emerged as the sole bidder for NHAI’s Eastern Peripheral Expressway project, entailing an investment of Rs27bn.The scrip touched intra-day high of Rs604 and low of Rs528 and recorded volume of over 21,00,000 shares on BSE.
Reliance Petroleum gained by 6% to Rs84 as reports stated that the company's 29mn tons export refinery goes on stream. The scrip touched intra-day high of Rs89.45 and low of Rs82 and recorded volume of over 1,00,00,000 shares on BSE.
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For the day, we see a sleepy start. There is no clear direction, but a steeper than expected fall in inflation could perk up the sentiment, as it did last Friday. Select heavyweights may be propped up to make the markets look good. Still, one cannot afford to go overboard, as things like additional dose of fiscal and monetary stimulus have already been discounted. Traded volume will remain low across the globe, with many participants choosing to extend the Christmas vacation. Asian markets are pretty mixed this morning, with the Nikkei in Tokyo up over 1%. Others are marginally up or down. Hong Kong markets are shut for Christmas.
Wipro announced that it would provide details of its deal with Origin Energy of Australia at a press conference in Bangalore later today.
The stock ended at Rs242 lower by 1.5%. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs247 and a low of Rs240 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on BSE.
Shares of Suzlon Energy dropped by over 6% to Rs56 after the company declined reports stating that Suzlon may sell as much as 15% of itself to U.S.-based Carlyle Group and TPG Capital for US$300mn.
The stake sale may be part of Suzlon's plans to raise as much as US$500mn, Reuters reported, citing unnamed bankers. The company may also raise US$200mn through debt, the report said.
The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs63 and a low of Rs55 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,00,000 shares on BSE.
RCom advanced by 1.5% to Rs216 after reports stated that the company has set aside US$1bn for its 3G telecom services rollout. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs218 and a low of Rs209 and recorded volumes of over 31,00,000 shares on BSE.
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Today,the mood seems to have gone sour yet again in the last couple of sessions. The bulls appear to be lacking the ammunition and confidence to push the Sensex higher after over 10% gain this month. The past two sessions have been rather disappointing for the bulls, who were hoping to extend the recent advance. The trend could turn positive again if global indices rebound, and FIIs resume their shopping spree. By the way, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong has already turned positive after slipping in early trades.
The F&O expiry today will make things much more volatile. We expect a cautious to slightly lower opening and a choppy day.
Shares of Fortis healthcare gained by 4.5% to Rs73 after the company announced that it was planning to raise Rs18-20bn via rights or warrants issue, stated reports. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs74 and a low of Rs70 and recorded volumes of over 4,00,000 shares on NSE.
Markets in other parts of the world may see a steep fall in trading as many players could extend their year-end vacation. As a result, there is a fair chance that volatility may increase on lower volumes.
The overall outlook remains uncertain, as nobody wants to take undue risks at this stage with only a few sessions to go in the year. Most players will take a call on the market only next year. Though the recent spurt across global equity markets has provided a much-needed boost to the bulls, one cannot rule out another steep fall. It's anybody's guess if the key indices will test October lows again or gradually advance. Much will hinge on the trend in fund flows and how fast the global economy rebounds.
As far as India is concerned, we will need proof that the string of government measures are working. There are reports of a fresh round of stimulus package being unveiled soon, including further easing in monetary policy by the RBI. But, these tend to provide only a brief relief to the market. One will also have to watch out for quarterly earnings and of course the political drama that will unfold over the next few months.
Shares of Wockhardt gained by 3.5% to Rs111 after reports stated that the company would raise Rs5bn via preferential allotment. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs115 and a low of Rs107 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on NSE.
Tata Steel slipped by a 1.6% to Rs225. Reports stated THAT Liberia has cleared the company of all allegations and has invited it to join the bidding process for the Western Cluster iron ore project in that country. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs236 and a low of Rs223 and recorded volumes of over 26,00,000 shares on BSE.
FIIs were net buyers of Rs3.78bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Thursday while the local institutions poured in Rs4.1bn. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers at Rs3.47bn. On Thursday, FIIs were net sellers at Rs542mn in the cash segment. Mutual Funds too pulled out Rs1.81bn on the same day.
The bulls too have been more or less back in business over the past couple of weeks. They will hope to be at peace during the Christmas week. But Asian markets are pretty mixed this morning. US stock benchmarks too ended mixed on Friday while European markets declined marginally. The start today may be flat at best. Wild swings will be the order of this week due to derivative settlement and lower volume.
US market may also turn more volatile as many market participants may choose to extend their Christmas holidays. US markets will close early on Wednesday and will remain closed on Thursday. Financial markets across the globe may witness less trading activity this week. The Indian markets too will remain shut on Thursday.
Shares of DLF surged by over 10% to Rs308 after the company announced that it unveiled its retail plans and aims for a targets of US$1bn revenue in five years.
Shares of Suzlon Energy ended lower by 0.5% to Rs58. The company announced that it is in talks to sell a 5% stake to Carlyle Group for about US$100mn, stated reports. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs62 and a low of Rs57 and recorded volumes of over 5,00,00,000 shares on BSE.
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Shares of IOC advanced by over 7% to Rs405 after the company announced that it formed a joint venture with Tata Power for a coal-based power plant. The scrip ouched an intra-day high of Rs408 and a low of Rs382 and recorded volumes of over 4,00,000 shares on BSE.
Shares of Titan Industries surged by over 5% to Rs955 after reports stated that the company was planning to spin off its precision engineering division into a JV. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs962 and a low of Rs886 and recorded volumes of over 4,00,000 shares on BSE.
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Shares of ACC have declined by 9% to Rs485 after the company announced that it would shut one of its kilns in the state of Himachal Pradesh and Punjab because of poor demand.
Having said that, the advance is unlikely to sustain unless the headwinds - both global as well as local - gradually start dissipating. As a result, we would continue to maintain the view that every rally should be used to lock in gains though long-term investors can continue to dabble in quality stocks at lower levels. Remember quality stocks. Catch them only if you can get a grip on the handle. Markets might continue to remain sluggish ahead of inflation data to be released tomorrow. Also in the US, Morgan Stanley would announce its Q4 results. It is advisable to stay cautious.Today, we expect the market to regain its winning ways at start but may remain choppy in the face of continuing uncertainty over the fate of the global economy. Inflation will be out today and is likely to fall further. But, that anyway has been factored in by most players.
FIIs were net sellers of Rs1.88bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Wednesday while the local institutions pulled out Rs978.2mn. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers at Rs5.05bn. On Tuesday, FIIs were net buyers of Rs275mn in the cash segment.
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