Monday, August 31, 2009

Pre Market Commentary ...

Today, we are likely to toe the global line and open in the red, though there is no need to panic as such. A small pull-back is only to be expected after the recent advance. The Q1 GDP data will be out today and could swing the game either way. India sure is a force to reckon with Force One F1 powering ahead to finish second in the Belgian Grand Prix on Sunday. But then China is something we cannot ignore. Despite perpetual optimism, the force may not be with the bulls at the start so to speak, as global markets are not doing well. A small pull-back is only to be expected after the recent advance.


The recent bugbear - the Chinese market could yet again play party pooper.
The Shanghai Composite has sunk by as much as 5%. Other Asian indices too are down 0.5-2%. On Wall Street, the Dow broke its eight-session winning sequence on Friday.
Despite the impending shortfall in farm output, the situation is not alarming as yet. The Finance Minister has reaffirmed that things are not so bad. One only hopes that the Centre manages the food supply situation well. Still, inflation is likely to present a few challenges down the line. If that happens, interest rates should also harden. One should brace for a few hiccups on the road to recovery.


The F&O rollover has been encouraging. It was the highest since February and much above the monthly average in recent history. However, other F&O indicators like the Put-Call ratio are pointing to some breather before the market kicks off another move up. The immediate resistance for the Nifty is placed at around 4800. The near-term support is seen at 4650-4680. Broadly, the index could swing between 4500 and 5000 in the next few weeks.


A factor that will play a crucial role in deciding the market's direction going ahead is fund flows and the mood of the overseas investors. This, in turn will hinge on how the situation shapes up on the local economic front and corporate results side. One will of course have to grapple with the daily developments across the global markets and economies as well.

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