Today, after Thursday’s pullback, bulls are all set to rule again. We expect the Indian market to open higher and stay firm. IIP data for April will be out today. Expectations are of continued improvement. Besides, March’s dismal figure (-2.3%) may also be revised upwards. What’s more, inflows from both, foreign and local funds have been pretty strong despite a choppy week.
Global cues are encouraging, barring the surge in oil prices. Key global markets in the US and Asia have hit multi-month highs. Stocks in Europe ended up for a third successive day. The advance is largely on belief that the worst of the global recession is history. Economic reports from across the globe show that the severity of economic slump is easing. Unless we are hit by any nasty surprises, the positive trend in equity markets is likely to hold, though the speed of the rise may slow a bit.
The immediate issues confronting this rally are: rising bond yields, spike in commodity prices, a possible weak monsoon, budget disappointments, policy delays and corporate earnings missing estimates. Meanwhile, the WHO has declared swine flu a global pandemic.
Investors seem happy with the small changes in economy and great changes in the market. Looking at the choppy trades on Thursday, markets would continue to struggle for direction in the coming days. The 4,650 levels for Nifty would continue to be crucial, a break out above or below the vital mark on either side would be the trend decider. Market players would also be awaiting the release of the industrial production numbers to be released on Friday noon. The consensus forecast is for a flat IIP as against a drop of 2.3% in March.
