Today, on the overall bourses we see the same old story; a weak start and later globally clues directing the proceedings.History is set to repeat on the bourses, as Reliance has done it again. Most analysts expect the ratio to favour RIL, though there could be a positive surprise for RPL shareholders. Though expected, we are surprised by the timing of the proposed merger of RPL with RIL. The swap ratio may be in a range between 16:1 and 24:1 (RPL:RIL). RPL shareholders could lose out if the ratio is unfavorable. But they will get an exposure to RIL’s high profile E&P assets, retail and SEZ businesses. So, we expect RIL to rally (later than sooner).
RIL’s weightage is high in the key indices but it may not be able to counter the persistent headwinds from the global markets. Even the macro-economic outlook is getting worse by the day, which is evident in the Q3 GDP data. The government’s fiscal situation also seems to be spiraling out of control.
The markets have fresh news to ponder and speculate on. Reliance Industries has done it again and finally announced a board meeting to mull merger with Reliance Petroleum. With Fortune 500 companies coming down in value, mergers will like may well create the balance sheet size that Indian conglomerates desire. All said and done, bulls and bears may hardly March anywhere this F&O series.
